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21The reference scenario

Carbon-credit baselines

How a baseline frames an estimated outcome, why counterfactuals are uncertain, and what documentation can make assumptions easier to inspect.

Last reviewed

01CarbonBlaze explainer

What carbon-credit baselines is about

A baseline is a defined reference scenario used to estimate what might occur without a proposed activity. It can draw on historic conditions, regulations, models, or other stated evidence. The chosen boundary and assumptions matter because they shape the size of a later estimated outcome.

02CarbonBlaze explainer

What the label cannot settle on its own

A baseline is not an observed alternate future. Even a detailed approach involves assumptions, changing conditions, and judgments about data. A baseline description therefore does not prove that all later estimates are exact or that other integrity questions have been resolved.

03CarbonBlaze explainer

Questions that keep the evidence trail open

Which methodology defines the baseline? What data, time period, and assumptions are disclosed? How does it address regulatory change, common practice, or changing conditions? Where can the monitoring and review documents be found?

Common questions

Does this guide rate a credit or project?

No. It explains the topic and suggests questions; quality and claim conclusions require project-specific evidence and appropriate review.

Is this legal, financial, tax, or procurement advice?

No. CarbonBlaze provides general educational material. Decisions should use applicable rules, primary sources, and qualified advice where needed.